2024 REAL ESTATE CRASH PREDICTIONS? 2023’s Sarasota Market in Dec #floridarealestate #predictions Roaldo Percoco, December 28, 2023December 28, 2023 WHAT happened in the Sarasota market as we end 2023? As we film just before Christmas, @andrewreeseluxury and I go over the end of November stats since the December numbers aren’t compiled yet! Watch the full video for the our analysis of what has happened in the year ending 2023 and how we can anticipate the 2024 market to shake out somewhat. We always go over the Sarasota County single family home stats as compared to the condo, townhome and villa market since those analytics tend to be more volatile historically speaking. By looking at the more stable single family home market, we can better predict future markets as well as guide our clients, whether purchasing or selling, throughout the year. And before I forget, I want to extend my SINCEREST heartfelt GRATITUDE for YOU – for watching my channel now and throughout the year. It really means a lot to me. And of course for any referrals received, know they’re always very well cared for no matter what! They’re a priceless gift. I hope that you and your family have a wonderful holiday season, one that’s full of joy, good health and much success now and in the new year and years to come! Contact me ANY time! SHAYLA TWIT, Star Team Principal Coldwell Banker Global Luxury 443 John Ringling Blvd Suite F Sarasota, FL 34236 CALL / TEXT: (941) 544-7690 EMAIL: SEE PROPERTIES FOR SALE in Florida: #floridarealestate #floridahousingmarket #floridaproperties So end of the month end of the year Recap for 2023 we're here at Emerald Harbor we're going to talk about all the Statistics for the last month and the Last year yeah we're looking forward to Kind of giving you a synopsis of what December 2023 was like and kind of uh Moving into the new year 2024 Yep I can't believe the end of 2023 Is Here Yeah end of 2023 um pretty wild I Mean we we came off the peaks of where Everything was really busy uh interest Rates skyrocketed on us although they're Coming down now um and they're starting To say they're there's going to be uh in 2024 they the interest rates they'll be Making some Cuts uh but it's it's an Interesting time um it's interesting Time and we're we're really busy but We're not um I don't know it's it's just We're busy but it's a weird busy like We'll have I I've always felt like real Estate in general comes in waves a lot It comes in many different waves so yeah If you're real true you know what I'm Talking about so what I mean is like We'll be busy in waves we'll have Listings in waves there will be Neighborhoods that have a bunch of Listings followed by no listings and it Just kind of es and flows like that Isn't that kind of what you trying too Well I'm going through that right now Like I just had two closings a couple Weeks ago I had three closings in early January but I have nothing else pending So it's you know I'm back in that mode Of like okay I've got to find a listing And and um kind of go that way but but That's real estate and that's that's Part of kind of you know we will be busy Now until April okay back to the stats Okay so I did not even look at these so I honestly have no idea I just printed Them all right are we talking monthly or Your yearly now remember because we're In December we're recapping end of November right and we're looking at Single family homes in Sarasota County Only now because we do that because the The town home Villa condos are all Different they're all over the map Historically speaking they're not as Like reliable in terms of predictions so Yeah all right so November of 2023 Versus November 2022 closed sales are up 31% wow what is that compared to the Rest of the country I don't know I mean That like closed sales are up 31% over the previous month or over last Year this time last year yeah that's Shocking to me because if you go back The the previous year we were in the Heart of like the craziness when every Everything was selling quickly and Closing and uh that's that's a little Bit surprising to me and then also paid In cash is up 24 almost 25% we're still Most cash that does make sense because For a while there the cash sales were Not keeping up with the higher interest Rates so now it's sort of caught up in That people are like well the rates Haven't gone down that much to where I'm Going to finance so I might as well pay Cash if you can do that well I I I have A deal right now on Leto that closes on The 4th of January um um that's at 500 South Washington and they they Originally put the offer in as a a Finance deal and he got into it and was Like nah I I just I don't I don't want To deal with the financing and all that We see that regularly we have a couple Transactions like that right now between The two of us and we're here for it I Mean I'm not gonna who's gonna who's Gonna backpedal on or or have an issue With someone going from financing to Cash obviously there would be an issue If you went the other way around right But if somebody did can actually write a Cash deal and they can still obtain a Loan and it just wouldn't be contingent On it right I will tell you though the Sellers there wanted us to remove the Finance Contingency which I thought was strange On on Leo we put the deal in put under Contract as a finance deal then they Were like well if you're going all cash We want to remove the finance Contingency my client was like I don't Care just remove it fine okay it's more Of a pain so sorry lenders not sorry Okay yeah um median sales price it's the Same okay last year is $4.99 this year 500 so it's $1,000 difference Essentially the same which I think is Good because really it was going up like Crazy it was but like it hasn't come Down and and you know I think the the Video we shot just before this that was Talking about affordable housing you Know you're talking the median uh price Is 500 if you're if you're waiting Tables in Sarasota you can't afford a Are they going to come up with they're Gifted and then paying over every month There's no way there's no way it's a Struggle and I think that you're really Going to start seeing um the service Industry is really going to suffer here Because they just can't afford to be Here anymore and what do other cities do Like bail and yeah so you're saying the People that are in the service industry Will they have no chance I mean it's and Even and you can say well gosh I can Always rent rents have skyrocketed as Well so you don't have an option for Real affordable housing in Sarasota and And what it really does is it pushes People to Ellington and it pushes people Down to Venice down to to Northport but Even then like you know you you have the Property just sold in Ellington and you Know it was a great price great house Great price really well finished I Really like the house but one of the Things that killed the the value of that Property really hurt the value of the Property was you couldn't rent it for The first two years you owned it no that Is true I had a couple of investors that I would have Lov to have brought in There if they could have rented the Place out you can't and that's why I Didn't want someone to show up and look At it not see that black and white that They had and that we it deterred I'm Sure some show but why show it and then They say oh well purpose of what I was Going to buy it for right right but the Other people that the the service Industry and the entry level that are Struggling I get it I feel it I mean Yeah you know i' I've been here 21 years Now and so I got in at a time that was Very affordable when s soda used to be Really affordable and everything was 15 Minutes away right and it's not either Anymore and and I I think that you know You asked well you know what what are Other cities doing I've only been in Vil I I I've told the story before that they Subsidize um the service industry well Service industry firemen police officers And what they do is they give them they Bought up a huge block of apartment Complexes and they which offset the cost Well they what they do to offset the Cost the units are still worth 8 or $900,000 so they say we're going to give You 500 Grand towards the the $900,000 Price But you can't sell it for 5 years and Then when you do sell it you can only Sell it to another service industry Person so what ends up happening is People that are working on the slopes Are like well you know I make 50 60 Grand a year as a ski instructor but if I look at like those people but well you Definitely need them and you need or Waiter or whatever but if I can buy this Place and stick it out for five years And continue to do this for five years I'm basically getting a half a million Dollar bonus so want that's the way they Look at it and and the way it's that has Worked really well for Veil so um you Know I think that in some point um There's going to be a Tipping Point Where you know I mean at the end of the Day are Sarasota is becoming really High-end well all of these High-end people consumers are going to Expect service and if they can't get it One of two things has to happen either They have to do something about the Housing to fix it for the consumer the The service industry people or they're Going to have to start accepting that The service is going to be terrible I Might have to put a call into the Commissioner who personally yeah um okay Let's keep moving so dollar volume is up 28.7% this is what we've been talking About right when we hear across the Country sales are down well sales are up Here they're way up sales are up we're Holding our prices right prices are Holding closings are way up and and and The amount of doll you know the dollar Volume of what's closing it's not like Well yeah you're closing a lot more Properties but they're cheaper homes They're not They're holding value and there's a lot More closings and they're in the higher Price point I'm telling you what we're Starting to see where where in the past Like five years and and older it would Be strange or an anomaly to see a $5 Million house now we're seeing those on The regular and the next range of houses 10 million and up is really starting to Creep in and going to become a more Regular piece of our inventory so and Those properties are not just City They're they're moving they're I had one Check out the uh Country Club Shores Video that them and have coming up in The playlist soon there's one in there For 10 just over 10 million that went in Three days so like our Market the Pricing I think a lot of that with the Dollar volume is because of the luxury Market we talked about that numerous Times so that's quite interesting all Right the other big question too is oh This is interesting list price versus Selling price that ratio is basically The same it actually went down by a Little bit meaning they're closer to the Asking price at an average of 95.7% wow so it what that means is if You're priced well it'll s your property Will sell in that 95.7% on average this is just an average Right well and that's a weird number to Talk about also because at the end of The day if something isn't priced right Then the agents tend to convince the Sellers to drop the price and if it Closes close to that new price It looks like it close close to that but It was listed way too high you know at The end of the day you know we we talk About this all the time list it for the Right price you know we we um you know Because I looked at it this morning it's Bothering me we had a listing we went After and and told them we should list At this price and an agent that had done Some business in the in the neighborhood As well took the listing and listed it For $300,000 more than what we had told them To that we needed to list it at and what It would sell at well that was six Months ago in six months well six months Ago it sat on the market for a month and A half or two months they dropped it 50 Grand then I sat on the market for Another two or three months they dropped At a 100 Grand then just today two or Three months later they dropped it Another they're getting closer they're Getting closer to the price that we Suggested and sometimes uh and I'm not Bashing anybody but agents will take the Listing and I've I've done it myself too So I'm not saying I'm not living in a Glass house over here but sometimes it's Also they want to work with you person Right right but you can tell someone as Much as you think professionally and um From experience that it is priced High It it doesn't do a seller any favors the High now that being said sellers are Listing high right but uh days on the Market from listing price to selling Price going under contract is high is Only from 23 days to 25 days it's a Little bit higher so from the time you List it to go to contract is not it's Not hon in a normal Market Market it's About 90 days that is normal so we're Still fast fast this is still very fast Just put all this into perspective now Not to jump ahead but we're going to do A separate video of 2024 predictions um You know there's word of like a crash And things like that we don't know I Mean our our area is so more insulated We're insulated from that and and number One we're insulated from that and Two if the market Crashes then I what I would foresee Happening is especially if they cut Interest rates and the market crashes Then what I would see happening is we Would still be busy properties would Still be selling our proper because We're so insulated the property values Would not come down what would start Happening is you'd start seeing people Finance more deals we're going to be Transacting the same amount of Properties as we were before it's just They going to be more Finance instead of All cash because we just have so many People moving here and we're drawing so Many people from parts of the country That you know California Washington State I me that's literally the opposite Side of the country and we're having People you know come in and say look you Know we're done we want to move to Florida we we don't want to deal with The weather we don't want to deal with The taxes we don't want to deal with the Politics so you know I think that like We are very insulated from the Downside and if they start cutting Interest rates our Market the prices Will go up are just going to Skyrocket It's going to Skyrocket again because All the buyers that are sitting on the Sideline saying I'm waiting for interest Rates to come down are all going to come Into the market at the same time and You're still going to have all these all Cash buyers so it's it's really not Gonna you know there really is going to Be um a dramatic swing in our Market I Think if they cut cut rates which Listings are up 41% right right and this Is common this time of year as kind of Head into season season this is a good Opportunity for buyers because with more Options right I would we and we talk About this too in the videos and just in Dialogue but um would you rather secure The property for a lower price and then If the rates go down when they go down Whatever that is you know that you have That lower price secure because the Trend is that prices are going up Although not exponentially which is Great they're still on the upward Trend They're on the upward Trend but let me Let me just say this too like if you if You capture the property at a low price And then the market come the the rates Come down you've got the best of both Worlds if you're trying to time it Perfectly you never will and and what Will end up happening is you're going to Wait until the rates come down and now You're like oh I can afford a $700,000 House right but the house at 700 Grand Was 550 or 600 the prices have come up You would have been better off buying The $700,000 house when the prices were Low and then when the rates came down Just refinancing it and capturing the House you know and I everybody's got Their timing and their needs and their Family moving and different life Situations I mean and we're here for it We deal with all kinds of people not Just the wealthy second home owners Which we we love and adore all of you no Matter your needs and no matter what Life hands to you there's always a time And a place to sell or purchase real Estate sure you know even in a really High crazy interest rate Market where People were talking about 18% I mean People people are always going to have To still sell and always be a well and What's funny about that is is I keep Hearing all these stories about you know My I think my parents told me that one Of their first homes they bought it like 17 18 20% or something but but you're Always hearing the story from somebody Who bought yeah who's like oh yeah my First house I financed at like 20% You're like oh my gosh it's so high I Listen to a lot of these podcasts that Talk about this like historically Speaking and uh oh it's a medic Helicopter medic um And they were like oh I was happy with That rate right and it was a double Digit rate and it's like just it's all Relative and it's all your perspective In your um experience I guess well yeah And I I think if people are are thinking The rates are going to come back down to Three and a quarter percent though That's that's not gonna happen I Wouldn't hold your breath I I do think They'll come down to four and a half to Five which is what really everything is Kind of averaged over over the years I Think they'll come down to four four and A half five listen if I got a five I'd Be happy with that yeah right I got a 5.2 5.21 124 uh arm on leafy I was happy with That another one another medic dang it Are we are you gonna you gonna make it I Think I'm okay um okay last but not Least all right inventory is always an Important topic supply and demand Inventory is up and it's again not Uncommon now that's a seasonal thing I Think but last year is at 2.4 months That is insanely insanely low so so as We end November 2023 it was at 4.3 it is Inching toward an equal Market though I Will say moving a little bit towards Yeah okay well a little bit it's moving Toward an equilibrium Market which is Not a bad thing you guys because we need Options we need choices for buyers um And so that's kind of where we're at yep That sounds good so we'll we'll next Video we'll talk about end of year and Uh kind of go from there uh my cell Phone number is 94158 62460 and you can Reach me at 941 544 7690 if you've Purchased or sold with us absolutely I Mean we can't express our gratitude for Wanting to work with us and can't thank You enough for that um as well as Watching subscribing liking our our YouTube channel so thank you for that Absolutely um cheers to 2024 Yeah
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